Rigetti's $100M Grant, Oil Risk, and a Narrow Tape

🔴 MACRO SNAPSHOT

• August payrolls printed +162k with unemployment at 4.10% (Fed funds target still 3.50%-3.75%) — the print reset rate-hike odds for the Sept 15–16 FOMC. Fed funds futures now imply materially higher odds of a 25bp hike than before Friday's report, following hawkish Jackson Hole remarks from the Fed chair, per overnight coverage.
• Reports indicate escalating Middle East conflict — Iran-backed Houthi strikes on shipping have pushed oil toward six-week highs, with Iran warning it "will take action against any threat," according to overnight coverage.
• Canada's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods took effect Tuesday after trade talks collapsed last month, per reports. Trump said Bombardier can't sell jets in the U.S. unless it manufactures them domestically, per the same coverage — Bombardier separately touted its 20+ state U.S. footprint and 2,800-company supply chain 37.
• Reports indicate the far-right AfD's state-election win in Germany is a blow to the federal coalition but is seen as unlikely to derail current fiscal plans.
• U.S. equity futures pointed lower ahead of the bell, per overnight coverage, as the geopolitical and tariff headlines weighed on sentiment.

🔄 SECTOR ROTATION

Winners: Technology (XLK) +0.70%, Industrials (XLI) +0.41%, Utilities (XLU) +0.12%. Losers: Consumer Discretionary (XLY) -1.33%, Communication Services (XLC) -1.19%, Health Care (XLV) -1.04%, Energy (XLE) -0.87%, Consumer Staples (XLP) -0.80%, Financials (XLF) -0.79%, Real Estate (XLRE) -0.72%, Materials (XLB) -0.34%. Only three sectors held green in the last session, and the losers span both cyclical (discretionary, financials) and defensive names (staples, health care) — a broad risk-off tilt rather than a clean defensive rotation.

📈 BONDS

2-year at 4.34% (-0.05), 10-year at 4.77% (-0.02), spread 0.41pp (-0.02). Both ends drifted lower with the curve flattening modestly — consistent with a market still digesting the jobs print against firming rate-hike odds.

🛢️ COMMODITIES

Gold $4,422.64, flat (-0.01%). Silver $66.55, +0.62%. Silver's outperformance against a flat gold tape is the notable divergence here.

💎 CRYPTO

Bitcoin $79,091.97, -1.55%. Ethereum $2,489.71, -0.98%, trading just under the $2,500-$2,520 resistance zone flagged in recent coverage 32. The pullback comes despite crypto ETFs pulling in $2.1 billion in net inflows for the week ended Aug 28 10 — flows and spot price are diverging for now.

📊 EARNINGS MOVERS

• NIO: EPS -0.04 vs -0.07 est, revenue $4.73B vs $4.79B est (Sept 1).
• Upcoming: ADBE reports Sept 10, EPS est $6.08.

🎯 NOTABLE SIGNALS

• Amgen fell 5% after Novartis' pelacarsen missed its Phase III cardiovascular endpoint, raising doubts about the broader Lp(a)-lowering class including Amgen's olpasiran 106.
• Nutanix surged 16%+ in August after fiscal Q4 beat ($757M revenue, $0.60 adj. EPS vs $0.49 est) and issued strong FY27 guidance 21.
• Workday beat Q2 estimates with 13.9% subscription growth and agentic AI ARR near $600M, up 200% YoY 117.
• Novocure disclosed a cybersecurity incident exposing patient IDs for 1,400+ U.S. patients; shares rose 3.2% since the disclosure despite the breach 112.

💡 MY TAKE

The last session's tape was narrow — tech and industrials were the only sectors that held up, and the losers list crossed both cyclical and defensive names, which reads more like broad de-risking than a rotation into safety. Overnight, firming rate-hike odds plus fresh geopolitical and tariff headlines are additional headwinds heading into the open. Energy's decline in the price data sits awkwardly next to reports of oil pushing toward six-week highs — worth watching whether that gap closes today. Separately, the government's $100M CHIPS Act award to Rigetti for superconducting quantum R&D 5 and Atos's Barcelona AI-services win 18 both point to steady public-sector demand for AI and advanced-compute infrastructure, a thread worth tracking alongside the broader AI-in-construction growth story 39.

Sector	Lean	Rationale
Technology	🟢	Only broad gainer last session (+0.70%), still the market's leadership group
Industrials	🟢	Second-best sector (+0.41%), holding up despite broader risk-off tilt
Energy	🟡	Sector fell -0.87% in the data even as overnight reports point to oil near six-week highs on Mideast escalation — a gap worth watching
Consumer Discretionary	🔴	Worst sector (-1.33%), tariff and geopolitical headlines add fresh pressure

Bottom Line: A narrow, defense-light tape heading into a week dominated by rate-hike repricing and geopolitical risk. Energy's disconnect from reported oil strength and the crypto flow-vs-price divergence are the two things worth checking again at the open. Signal over noise.

👁️ NAMES TO WATCH TODAY

RGTI (Rigetti Computing) — Secured a $100M CHIPS Act grant for quantum R&D; watch progress on readout electronics and cryogenic projects 5. AEXAY (Atos SE) — Won Barcelona's AI services contract to digitize municipal work; watch implementation milestones and potential follow-on public sector deals 18. COIN (CoinShares) — Crypto ETFs logged $2.1B net inflows this week, signaling strong capital flow into crypto assets; watch future ETF flow trends 10. ADSK (Autodesk, Inc.) — AI-in-construction market forecast projects $53B by 2035, with Autodesk cited among software leaders; watch product rollouts and adoption rates 39. TRMB (Trimble Inc.) — Featured in the AI-construction market report as a key tech provider; watch Trimble's integration of AI tools 39. ASML (ASML Holding N.V.) — Highlighted for AI-driven semiconductor demand and capacity expansion plans; watch EUV system shipments and capacity ramp 102. JBL (Jabil Inc.) — Cited for AI infrastructure demand driving revenue growth and new manufacturing capacity; watch order book and AI-related client wins 108. ADI (Analog Devices, Inc.) — Noted for strong AI data-center demand boosting optical and power product sales; watch optical circuit switching revenue trajectory 124. RGTIW (Rigetti Computing Warrants) — Reflects market interest after the $100M grant; watch warrant pricing and potential equity stake implications 5. CRCL (Crescent Capital BDC, Inc.) — Noted in the crypto ETF inflow story, reflecting broader crypto market enthusiasm; watch fund performance and inflows 10.