GDP, PCE, and Nvidia All Land Today

🔴 MACRO SNAPSHOT

• The big convergence lands today: Q2 GDP, July PCE inflation, and Nvidia's earnings all hit within hours of each other 16.
• GDP growth is running soft around 1.5% annualized while core inflation stays elevated near 3.3%, per pre-market coverage 16.
• Fed funds holds at 3.50%-3.75%. Overnight reporting on Fed meeting minutes suggests officials would consider another hike if inflation doesn't keep cooling, per CNBC coverage.
• Trump's tariffs on Canadian autos are set to double to 50% on January 1, 2027; GM absorbed $3.1B in costs from the prior tariff cycle with muted stock reaction, offsetting over 40% through pricing 32.
• Treasury announced a fresh sanctions package targeting Iran's oil, shipping, crypto, gold and aviation sectors overnight, per reports.

🔄 SECTOR ROTATION

Winners: Technology (XLK) +0.94%, Communication Services (XLC) +0.77%, Health Care (XLV) +0.34%. Losers: Energy (XLE) -1.66%, Consumer Staples (XLP) -1.06%, Industrials (XLI) -0.34%, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) -0.30%. Tech and comm services led into the Nvidia print while energy and staples lagged hardest — a risk-on tilt ahead of today's data barrage rather than a flight to defensives.

📈 BONDS

10-year at 4.70% (-0.04), 2-year at 4.24%, spread widened slightly to 0.47pp (+0.01) — modest bull-flattening at the long end ahead of GDP/PCE. Separately, the 30-year hit 5.23% per this morning's coverage, now yielding more than Ford's or Coca-Cola's dividend yields 3.

🛢️ COMMODITIES

Gold $4,654.63 (-0.54%), Silver $68.73 (-1.40%). Both slipped even as Treasury rolled out new sanctions touching Iran's gold and oil trade overnight, per reports.

💎 CRYPTO

Bitcoin $78,526.8 (-0.58%), Ethereum $2,442.73 (-1.63%) — softer alongside risk assets broadly, without an obvious catalyst in the data.

📊 EARNINGS MOVERS

ZM — EPS $1.55 vs $1.48 est, revenue $1.28B vs $1.27B est. Beat on both lines. NVDA reports after today's close, EPS est $2.09. Data center revenue grew 92% YoY to $75.2B last quarter; guidance, gross margins, and hyperscaler concentration are the focus 16. Upcoming: BILI 8/27 (EPS est $0.23), NIO 9/1 (EPS est -$0.07).

🎯 NOTABLE SIGNALS

• The AI-infrastructure power thread we've been tracking advanced: Oklo is positioning SMR power for AI workloads 66, and Navitas is acquiring Claros for up to $232.8M, more than doubling its addressable market to over $8B 65.
• The dividend-rotation thread also moved: Citadel's Ken Griffin boosted his AbbVie stake 547% in Q2, adding roughly $798M in shares of the Dividend King 15.
• Nvidia acquired Poolside AI for $6B for coding-model talent 42 and guaranteed up to $105B of OpenAI's Ohio data-center leases, shifting from equity backing to credit support 128.
• Dick's Sporting Goods fell after Foot Locker posted a $32M loss and dragged full-year guidance lower 60.
• Super Micro rallied 9.4% on a new Cisco partnership for liquid-cooled AI servers 106.

💡 MY TAKE

VIX ticked up to 15.85 into a loaded catalyst day, but sector positioning still looks risk-on — tech and comm services led, energy and staples lagged. The staples underperformance sits oddly next to continued idiosyncratic buying in names like AbbVie, suggesting the rotation is stock-specific rather than sector-wide right now. If Nvidia's print disappoints on margins or customer concentration, today's tech leadership could reverse fast; if GDP and PCE come in as flagged, the modest bond rally may extend.

Sector	Lean	Rationale
Technology	🟢	Led the board into the Nvidia print, up 0.94%
Energy	🔴	Worst sector on the day, down 1.66%
Consumer Staples	🟡	Sector down 1.06% even as individual dividend names see heavy buying
Utilities	🟡	Roughly flat at +0.21% despite a live nuclear/power buildout thesis

Bottom Line: A quiet overnight session sits ahead of the year's most loaded data day — GDP, PCE, and Nvidia earnings all within hours of each other. Positioning looks risk-on into the print, but low VIX plus a triple-catalyst day is a setup for volatility, not calm. Signal over noise.

👁️ THE WATCHLIST

AMZN (Amazon.com, Inc.) — AWS AI infrastructure demand stays strong, reinforced by raised 2026 AI capex target, driving negative free cash flow. MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) — Micron's DRAM demand tied to agentic AI memory needs, but a 50% shortfall and large customer deposits pressure the stock. RDDT (Reddit, Inc.) — Reddit's growing data-licensing revenue and potential S&P 500 inclusion drive watch on licensing growth and index impact. SKHY (SK Hynix Inc.) — Musk's memory-limit comment fuels optimism for SK Hynix's NAND and DRAM exposure to agentic AI workloads; monitor capacity expansions. SNDK (SanDisk Corp.) — Musk's remarks raise expectations for SanDisk NAND flash demand from AI agents; watch sales to data-center OEMs. GOOG (Alphabet Inc.) — Alphabet invests heavily in AI infrastructure with $195-205 billion capex guidance and growing billionaire ownership, a key AI spend beneficiary. META (Meta Platforms, Inc.) — Meta's AI-infrastructure spending remains elevated, supported by billionaire investors adding to its position and ongoing AI-driven ad growth. NVDA (Nvidia Corp.) — Nvidia leads AI compute supply; watch its upcoming earnings and mixed analyst sentiment as growth expectations face scrutiny. TODAY: Reports after the close, EPS est $2.09, with data center revenue growth of 92% YoY last quarter as the backdrop 16. TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.) — TSMC remains the primary semiconductor beneficiary of AI-infrastructure spending, with billionaire investors adding to its stake amid mixed memory-chip dynamics. CEG (Constellation Energy Corp.) — Constellation Energy's nuclear generation could power power-hungry AI data centers; rising AI data-center power demand highlights CEG as a potential beneficiary. CCJ (Cameco Corp.) — Cameco's uranium production positions it to supply power for AI data-center demand; monitor contracts and pricing.